2 Art of the War Negotiation Tactics That Boris Johnson Can Use to Save His Job
To political onlookers, Boris Johnson, the great escape artist of politics, where gaffes and scandals simply bounce off him, is surprisingly showing a consistent lack of tactical nous to steer off the partygate scandal. The latest evidence being the uncovering of a highly suspicious meeting between Johnson and Cabinet Office Second Permanent Secretary, Sue Gray.
Johnson’s modus operandi when dealing with past scandals, perhaps unbeknownst to him, has always been the inadvertent use of the famed Ancient Chinese War Strategist, Sun Tzu’s tactic of “retreat when the enemy advances”. It’s hard, if not possible, to recall the last time when he vehemently lashed out at his political opponents when confronted viciously. This time however, this tactic doesn’t seem to come in handy. A major reason is the hard evidence of his involvement in the scandal and his wrongdoing. It seems that the more he retreats, that is, the more he tries to make excuses or distance himself from the scandal, the more the public and his opponents zero in on him. To save his premiership this time, he will have to pull a trick from other Art of the War negotiation tactics.
One of Sun Tzu’s important principles is “Achieve Victory via Goal Alignment between the Higher and the Lower Ranked” - that is, making sure that every team member possesses the same goals. Now is the worst time for spreading division amongst Johnson’s cabinet, which Johnson has wrongfully done, at least from a tactical standpoint. One of the latest being the Rishi Sunak tax debacle. It is of general public perception that Johnson had some role to play in this debacle, since Johnson was one of the only few people who can assess Sunak’s family tax filings. Whether Johnson leaked this information or not, the loyalty of Sunak to Johnson must have been dented, which does not help Johnson’s cause, to say the least. What Johnson should do now, like Sun Tzu would have done, is to come up with another common goal that the conservative party has to fight for together, so that the public can move on from the partygate scandal. Johnson, till this day, has not successfully managed to do so.
The saying “Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste” is truer than ever in Johson’s case today - with inflation rising and the upcoming health crisis, monkeypox, Johnson should try and band together the conservative party via a message of unity to overcome a severe challenge in the near horizon. As Sun Tzu suggests, this common goal should be something that all members have no choice but to fight for. Johnson should understand that there is little value now to convince conservative party members to save his premiership - the damage has been done and prominent MPs like Mr. David Davis has even asked Johnson to resign in public. He needs another reason to unite the party, preferably something that will threaten the careers of a significant number of Tory MPs if not achieved.
Perhaps the poor Tory performance in recent local elections will work in Johnson’s favour. Johnson badly needs another reason, like Ukraine, for conservative MPs to move on from the partygate scandal, and what better motivator than the potential demise of the Tory Party at the next election. If I were the PM, I would definitely use the staving off of food inflation as the main message to unite my party. From an objective standpoint, if the Tories cannot formulate an effective plan to combat food prices, they risk being obliterated at the next election, and Tory MPs know this. By positioning himself as a person who has the knowledge to fight inflation, Johnson should be able to create a strong enough motivator for party members to move on from the partygate scandal. Now is not the time to accept advice from people like the UK attorney general Suella Braverman, who proposed recently to expel “disloyal” MPs.
Calling a snap election in 2022 can also be considered as a means to unite the party, whilst taking victory using the elements of “surprise” and “speed”.
If Sun Tzu were in Johnson’s position now, a snap election is likely to be called. Aside from army unity, Sun Tzu’s attitude towards war had always been “Fight Quick, Win Quick” - wars consume umpteen amounts of resources, hence victories should be achieved in the quickest time possible. Although seemingly common sense, Johnson seems to have forgotten about the dangers of being bogged down by issues that hinder his reelection chances, whilst losing focus on the big prize for him, namely re-election.
Aside from the dragging on of the partygate scandal, the elephant in the room is obviously the economy. Reports have come out recently that Johnson’s strategist, Lynton Crosby, advised Johnson to call a snap election amidst rising inflation and the prospects of an even worse economy in 2024. Crosby is right in suggesting that if a snap election were not called now, Johnson would need to face the consequences of a worsening economy, something that to this day, he does not have the solution to.
A slightly less obvious benefit for Johnson to call a snap election in 2022, is that rather than completing the simple task of pointing fingers, it forces the Labour party to actually come up with its own solution to the economy as well. Not only this, but Johnson would gain a huge advantage in terms of time on his side to formulate a coherent and practical economic policy. With Johnson regaining the power of calling elections any time he wishes, this obviously gives the incumbent the advantage of commencing election preparations earlier than his opponent. This aligns with Sun Tzu’s emphasis on gaining an advantage over the enemy through speed.
Polling numbers should also give Johnson a slight boost of confidence in his chances of victory in a snap election. With Labour’s poll advantages shrinking despite the ongoing partygate allegations, together with the voters’ primary concern of the handling of the economy, which the Tories are more favorably viewed upon, this should give enough motivation for Johnson to seriously consider a snap election.
If Johnson were to learn more from Sun Tzu to get himself out of the sticky political situation he is in now, he would also be wise to factor in his opponent’s morale into his decision. To be more precise, are Labour voters that confident in Keir Starmer’s leadership? With Starmer being in a sticky position as well himself, now could be the time to go on the offensive for Johnson.
